The Role of Circular Economy, Consumption Reduction, and Material Efficiency in Peak Waste

Over recent decades, demand for various materials has increased at an unprecedented rate to underpin human well-being. However, our current material use is problematic and generates massive waste, which is approaching the carrying capacity of our planet and requires a spin on its growth, namely the peak waste. Hence, the current waste generation trend must be fully understood and adjusted. In particular, (iron and) steel is considered as a benchmark case for peak waste studies, since it is the world’s most used and recycled metals with various applications to support our daily lives. This study proposes a dynamic material cycle model and applies it to waste management. The trend of waste generation from steel use (from 1900 to 2100) is simulated through year by year calculation from the dynamic material cycle model. To facilitate future waste management, four scenarios are built to predict the future trend from 2016 to 2100, namely the business as usual scenario, Circular Economy scenario, Material Efficiency scenario, and Lifestyle Compromise scenario. These results indicate (a) Steel faces a severe waste issue despite being the most recycled metal; (b) Optimization of waste management requires a whole life cycle investigation; (c) Circular economy is not enough to peak waste; (d) Compromising lifestyle has limited effect; (e) Peak Waste requires comprehensive solution accompanied by Material Efficiency.